Gas Prices Could Hit $4 a Gallon This Summer

OPEC+ is cutting its oil production by more than a million barrels a day starting next month, a move that experts say could seriously impact gas prices in the US.

The oil-producing alliance, which includes Saudia Arabia, Russia and Iran, announced on April 2 that it will reduce its overall output by 1.2 million barrels from May 1 through the end of 2023, equal to about 1% less oil on the global market.

The news came just after Russia said it would decrease production by 500,000 barrels a day.

Gas prices typically increase during the summer, but OPEC's decision could ratchet them up even higher.

"I certainly think there's going to be upward pressure on prices as a result of these production cuts," GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick de Haan told ABC News.

On Twitter, de Haan said he expected the slowdown to cause oil prices to rise $3 to $6 a barrel. At the pump, he added, the increase would be "limited to a ballpark of 5 to 15 cents a gallon."

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Peter McNally, an industrial materials and energy expert for Third Bridge, predicts a steeper increase, closer to 30 cents per gallon. If McNally is right, gas prices could reach $4 a gallon by summer.

On Monday the national average for a gallon of gas was $3.60, according to AAA. That's up about 13 cents from a month ago, but far less than the $4.12 average from this time last year.  

Regular gasoline hit an all-time high of $5.02 a gallon in June 2022, as the market reacted to supply chain issues and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

OPEC+ nations previously cut their output by 2 million barrels per day last October, a move the White House called "shortsighted."

The Biden administration has similarly criticized the new announcement, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called "unconstructive."

"We don't think cuts are advisable at this moment, given market uncertainty -- and we've made that clear," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Monday.